35% ▲ jump or $1.04 more per gallon…
You know that number you've been dreading every time you pull into a gas station?
We crossed it.
As of today, the national average for a gallon of regular gas hit $4.018.
The first time since August 2022.
That's not a headline you read and forget. That's a number you feel every single week when you're standing at the pump, watching the dollars tick up, doing the mental math on whether you really need to go to that thing on Saturday.
And here's the part that makes it sting a little more.
When the Iran war started in late February, gas was $2.98 a gallon (national average).
Today it's $4.02.
That's a 35% ▲ jump or $1.04 more per gallon…
Diesel is even worse. Up 45% to $5.45. Which means trucks cost more to run. Which means shipping costs more. Which means groceries cost more. Which means everything costs more.
One closed strait. Lots of consequences.
Here's the story ⇩
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Quick geography reminder…
The Strait of Hormuz is a 21-mile chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Before the war, roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply traveled through it every single day.
It's been effectively closed for a month.
And crude oil is up more than 50% ▲ since the war began.
Today brought a plot twist though.
The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he's willing to end the US military campaign against Iran — even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.
Markets went wild on the headline.
→ Oil swung.
→ The dollar fell.
→ Treasury yields dropped.
And gold? Gold went absolutely vertical.
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The $4,700 Metal
Gold jumped as much as 3.12% today, touching $4,699.50 an ounce.
That's three straight sessions of gains. And it's happening for a very specific reason.
When Trump signals peace talks, traders do two things simultaneously:
1\ They sell oil (less war = more supply = lower prices)
2\ They buy gold (uncertainty is still high, dollar is weakening, rates might fall)
Gold doesn't pay interest. So when rates are high, holding gold feels a little pointless — your money could be sitting in a bond making 5%.
But the moment the threat of rate hikes fades? Gold starts looking a lot more attractive again.
That's exactly what happened Monday. Powell said inflation expectations are still anchored. Traders who were betting on more rate hikes changed their minds.
And gold went up.
Despite this week's surge, gold is still on track for its worst month since 2008.
Read that again.
Gold is up 3.12% ▲ today and it's still having its worst month in 17 years.
That tells you how brutal the first few weeks of the war were — forced selling, equity routs, margin calls. Everything got dumped. Including gold.
What's happening now is the recovery. The rebound. The market slowly exhaling.
Silver had an even better day than gold — up 6.51% ▲ to $75.16 an ounce. Palladium jumped 4.18% ▲.
When the precious metals complex moves together like this, it's not a coincidence. It's the market sending a very clear message: we still don't trust this situation.
Two scenarios.
It is not a ceasefire yet. It is more like a negotiation with guns still drawn.
Which means today's gold rally could evaporate tomorrow on a single bad headline. And today's oil dip could reverse just as fast.
Same as last week. Pick your world.
World A: Peace deal happens. → Strait reopens. → Oil crashes back. → Gas falls. → Gold pulls back.→ Markets party like it's February again.
World B: Talks stall. → Strait stays closed.→ Oil grinds higher toward $100.
→ Gas approaches $5 nationally — Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy told CNBC that's where we could be headed if the closure continues.→ Gold keeps climbing as the chaos hedge of choice.
History doesn't give you a clean answer here.
But your gas receipts are already telling you which world we're living in right now.
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Where You're Feeling It Most
Not all $4 is created equal.
→ California: $5.90 a gallon
→ Hawaii: $5.50
→ Washington: $5.30
→ Oklahoma, Iowa, Kansas: under $3.30
If you're in California right now, $4 national average sounds like a vacation.
If you're in Kansas, you're watching the news and thanking your lucky stars you don't live on the coast.
The national average hitting $4 is a psychological threshold. GasBuddy says $5 nationwide is possible if the strait stays blocked.
$5 is the number where consumer behavior historically breaks.
Road trips get cancelled. Restaurants feel it in foot traffic. Airlines feel it in bookings.
We're not there yet.
But we're watching the number with the same energy as a flight tracker when your bag is at the connection airport and you have 22 minutes.
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