BTC: The $100K Question

Fear sells, structure endures.

Trading Lessons
November 05, 2025

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Bitcoin’s slide turned into a two-day reckoning.

After $1.4 billion in crypto positions were liquidated Monday — including $391 million in BTC longs — the sell-off deepened Tuesday as Bitcoin twice fell below $100,000 for the first time since June. ETF redemptions haven’t helped: outflows totaled $186.5 million Monday and another $763 million since, per SoSoValue.

CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 20, its lowest since April — firmly in “extreme fear.” Traders call it “an almost biblical level of dread.”

By Wednesday, Bitcoin clawed back above $103K, but the tone remains fragile. Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn now sees the year ending near $120K, down from $185K, citing “heavy whale distribution” and a rotation into competing narratives like AI, gold, and stablecoins.

The Breakdown

Analysts tie the drop to waning ETF demand, risk-off macro sentiment, and forced deleveraging across crypto treasuries.

Technically, the damage runs deep:

Below both the 200-day and 365-day MAs (~$102K) — critical supports from prior bull cycles.
Citi and CryptoQuant warn a sustained break here could replay the 2022 bear-market trigger.
Blockhead Research flags $98K as structural support; below $95K could “trigger panic.”
Prediction-market data show a 74% chance Bitcoin ends 2025 below $100K, with a 17% chance of dipping under $80K.

Thorn sees short-term upside capped: “Nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is reasonable for short-term bulls,” he wrote — but cautioned that gains could come slower as cyclical headwinds persist.

Still, others call this a reset, not a collapse. FG Nexus’s Maja Vujinovic said holding $100K–$105K could mark a “healthy reset.” Coin Bureau’s Nic Puckrin remains long-term bullish, eyeing $150K once fear clears.

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Trading Through Fear

Extreme fear isn’t a signal to predict — it’s a signal to observe.
At psychological levels ($100K, $95K, $90K), price reflects human stress as much as market value.

Disciplined traders:
① Use higher-time-frame context — short-term breaks don’t define full cycles.
② Wait for confirmation — capitulation first, reversal later.
③ Watch liquidity spikes — forced selling often precedes relief rallies.
④ Detach execution from emotion — alarms beat adrenaline.

Fear sells, but patience profits.

What the Chart Shows

Lesson of the Day: Backtesting — The Trader’s Truth Serum

Every trader has thought it: “If I’d just followed that setup every time, I’d be up big.”
Backtesting is how you find out if that setup actually works — or if it just looked good in hindsight.

It’s not about predicting the future; it’s about pressure-testing your strategy under different market conditions to see if the edge holds.

Done right, backtesting reveals three things:

Profitability: Does your edge actually exist?
Risk: How deep are the drawdowns, and can you stomach them?
Consistency: Does it hold up across bull, bear, and sideways markets?

Most traders avoid backtesting because it forces them to face uncomfortable truths. But that’s exactly what makes it powerful — it exposes weaknesses before the market does.

If your backtest looks flawless, it’s probably overfitted. If it looks realistic, you’ve found something valuable.

Backtesting won’t make you right on every trade — it’ll make you honest about what’s working.

Key levels:

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Share how you recognized when fear turned into opportunity.

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