You know that feeling when you finally exhale.
The tension is gone. You sleep well. You make plans.

1\ Then you wake up Saturday morning and the peace talks collapsed.
2\ Then Sunday President Trump blockaded the Strait of Hormuz on Truth Social. 3\ Then Monday oil hit $103 before you finished your coffee.

That exhale didn't last long.

Here's everything happening today⇩

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US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan failed to reach a deal.

Sunday morning President Trump posted on Truth Social that the US Navy would block any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday at 10 a.m. ET.

US Central Command confirmed it.

→ Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel.
→ WTI crude jumped to $104.

Oil is back. With a vengeance.

And just like that, everything the market celebrated last week went into reverse.

Last week airlines and cruise stocks were the stars of the show. Ceasefire announced. Oil crashed. Fuel costs dropping. Party time.

This week?

→ Delta Air Lines DAL ( ▼ 1.42% )
→ United Airlines UAL ( ▼ 1.22% )
→ American Airlines AAL ( ▼ 1.24% )
→ Royal Caribbean RCL ( ▼ 0.01% )
→ Carnival CCL ( ▼ 1.89% )

And the energy stocks that got destroyed last week? They're back.

→ APA Corporation APA ( ▲ 1.5% )  
→ Halliburton HAL ( ▲ 2.12% )  
→ Dow Inc. DOW ( ▲ 3.28% )  
→ LyondellBasell LYB ( ▲ 2.36% )  
→ CF Industries CF ( ▲ 1.28% )  
→ Chevron CVX ( ▲ 1.16% )  
→ Marathon Petroleum MPC ( ▲ 1.16% )  

Same market. Same stocks. Completely opposite direction.

One Truth Social post.
Trillions of dollars in motion.
This is the world we live in now.

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While the ceasefire trade was busy reversing, one corner of the market didn't get the memo.

The AI compute trade.

CoreWeave CRWV ( ▲ 9.12% ) surged another 9.9% today. Following up on last week's Anthropic deal with more momentum.

→ Nebius NBIS ( ▲ 8.45% )
→ IREN IREN ( ▲ 6.36% )
→ Cipher Digital CIFR ( ▲ 4.78% )
→ Applied Digital APLD ( ▲ 4.49% )
→ Astera Labs ALAB ( ▲ 9.16% )
→ POET Technologies POET ( ▲ 3.55% )
→ Sandisk SNDK ( ▲ 8.13% )

Then there's the power side of the AI trade.
PJM — the US grid operator — warned after Friday's close that it needs to add 15 gigawatts of new power supply by Q1 2027 just to keep up with AI demand.

15 gigawatts. For context, Anthropic just secured 3.5 gigawatts in its Google partnership last week and that felt enormous.

The grid itself is now scrambling to keep up with AI.

→ Vistra VST ( ▲ 2.85% )  
→ Bloom Energy BE ( ▲ 4.72% )  
→ Oklo OKLO ( ▲ 5.97% )  
→ Plug Power PLUG ( ▲ 1.64% )  

Geopolitics can reverse overnight. The AI compute boom apparently cannot.

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After getting absolutely destroyed last week — down 30% for the year, Anthropic eating everyone's lunch, multi-agent orchestration sending the whole sector into an existential crisis — software stocks decided Monday was their day.

The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF jumped nearly 5%.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF? Roughly flat.

→ Workday WDAY ( ▲ 7.41% )
→ Circle CRCL ( ▲ 9.52% )
→ ServiceNow NOW ( ▲ 6.94% )
→ Atlassian TEAM ( ▲ 6.3% )
→ AppLovin APP ( ▲ 5.96% )
→ CrowdStrike CRWD ( ▲ 6.11% )
→ Palantir PLTR ( ▲ 4.13% )

For context on how bad things had gotten: in the five sessions ending Friday, semiconductors outperformed software by 18.4 %.
The most on record. Ever.

So is this a real recovery?

Goldman Sachs had thoughts. Published Friday, their analysts noted that even excluding software, secular growth stocks have been underperforming and trading at discounted valuations relative to the past decade.

Their take: that could be an opportunity.

The median non-software secular growth stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29x — close to the bottom of its ten year range. Consensus 2027 sales growth for these companies is three times the rate of the median S&P 500 company.

Goldman's list of non-software growth stocks worth watching includes Broadcom, AMD, Vertiv, Arista Networks, Nvidia, DoorDash, and Axon.

Plain English translation: the AI trade isn't dead. It's just rotating out of the obvious names and into the less obvious ones.

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Earnings season kicked off this morning with Goldman Sachs.

It did not go perfectly.

Goldman missed on:
→ fixed income,
→ currencies, and
→ commodities trading revenue.

The stock dropped as much as 4.6%▼ in early trading before recovering to about 3.3%▼ down during the conference call.

But real story is private credit.

Private credit funds have been facing investor outflows because of their exposure to software companies. And Anthropic — by building AI tools that threaten to replace entire categories of software — has effectively blown a hole in the revenue assumptions that made those software loans look safe.

In other words: Anthropic's AI isn't just disrupting software stocks. It's disrupting the loans that were made against those software companies.

Last month JPMorgan quietly curbed some of its exposure to private credit while marking down some of those loans.

The market is watching closely. JPMorgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup all report tomorrow.

Each one will be asked the same uncomfortable question about private credit.

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While Wall Street debates private credit and AI compute empires, we are quietly getting squeezed from every direction.

→ Prices rose 3.3% annually last month.
→ Average hourly wages grew 3.5%.

The gap between the two? Almost gone.

Between February and March alone prices jumped 0.9% — sending real hourly pay into negative territory. Workers netted $0.07 less per hour than the month before.

And that's before you look at what things actually cost.

→ A 16-item grocery basket costs 43% more than in 2019
→ Coffee prices have more than doubled since the pandemic
→ Median rent is $1,895 — up 41% from $1,343 in 2019
→ Median monthly homeownership cost is now $2,800 — up 72% from 2019
→ Average new car monthly payment: $805
→ Gas is above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022
→ Airline fares up 14.9% from a year ago

And now oil is back above $100. Gas prices are going higher. The consumer was already stretched. This does not help.

Last week the market celebrated a ceasefire.
This morning, I stared at the pump for a solid ten seconds - Regular was $4.59.
One weekend changed everything.

→ The consumer sentiment index just hit its lowest level since 1952.
→ Wages are barely keeping up with prices.
→ Oil is back above $100.
→ And Wall Street is still modeling 16.6% earnings growth for Q4.

One of these things is not reading the room.

Earnings season started this morning.
The next few weeks will tell us which version of reality is closer to the truth.

The gas pump already has its answer.




!!! Not financial advice. The stocks mentioned are for educational purposes only. Do your own research before making investment decisions, please check the disclaimer below.

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