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In most buildings, there are two systems that keep things comfortable.

A thermostat.
And a fire alarm.

One adjusts temperature gradually.

The other screams when something’s wrong.

For weeks, markets were watching the thermostat — expecting the Fed to dial rates down as labor softened.

AND the data reminded everyone the thermostat might not be going down at all.

Then, last week, they remembered the fire alarm exists too.

Here’s the story ⇩

The narrative coming into February was simple:

→ The labor market would soften.
→ Inflation would cool.
→ The Fed would trim rates.

Nothing dramatic. Just gradual adjustment.

Then the jobs data hit.

→ 130,000 payrolls — stronger than expected.
→ Unemployment dipped to 4.3%.
→ Goods inflation showing firmness.

Not overheating, not cooling either… but it changed the psychology inside the Fed.

Suddenly, rate cuts were a debate.

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Prediction markets now price a 95% chance of no change.

When the thermostat stops moving lower, expectations shift.

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Just as rate expectations stabilized, trade policy re-entered the picture.

The Supreme Court struck down prior tariffs.

Within days, a new 15% global tariff replaced them under a different legal tool.

So what looked like policy relief… Turned into policy reshuffling.

Countries that negotiated favorable rates — like the UK and parts of Europe — now face increases.

Meanwhile, former targets like China and Brazil see relative relief.

In short:

→ Europe paused ratification.
→ India delayed talks.
→ China recalculated.

Now traders are staring at a new mix:

• Labor strength delaying cuts
• Trade friction complicating growth

One supports rates. One clouds outlook.

That’s not a clean macro environment… it’s more like a crosscurrent.

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Here’s what makes this environment different.

Strong labor:
→ Delays rate cuts
→ Supports yields
→ Strengthens the dollar

Tariff uncertainty:
→ Pressures global growth
→ Complicates supply chains
→ Raises cost expectations

One tightens.
One destabilizes.

And when two forces pull in different directions, price compresses.

That’s why indices feel steady.
That’s why volatility feels subdued.

Simply because risk is split.

When expectations shift:

Right now, we’re between step one and step two.

The market has adjusted to stronger labor.

It has not fully priced the second-order effects of renewed trade friction.

That gap is where opportunity forms.

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This phase feels stable.

But stability and compression aren’t the same thing.

When strong labor delays cuts, and tariffs cloud growth, conviction thins out.

And when conviction thins out, ranges tighten. But ranges don’t last forever.

Compression precedes expansion.

The only question is which narrative wins.

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