TSLA: $1 Trillion Pay Day

Europe’s turning cold on Musk’s EV empire — just as investors warm up to his trillion-dollar payday.

Trading Lessons
November 03, 2025

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Tesla’s stock has been volatile lately. After a record delivery quarter, October’s sales numbers from Europe are flashing red. Reuters reports an 89% drop in Sweden, with similar plunges in Denmark and Norway. France was the lone bright spot, posting a modest uptick.

The broader story? Tesla’s facing both political and competitive headwinds overseas — a double hit from local backlash and rival EV makers like BYD and Volkswagen eating into share.

Musk’s $1 Trillion Moment

Meanwhile, Tesla’s leadership drama is hitting its own critical resistance.
Prediction markets show 94% odds that shareholders will approve Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package at Thursday’s meeting.

The deal hinges on near-impossible milestones:

Boosting Tesla’s market cap to $8.5 trillion (currently $1.46T)
Delivering 1M AI robots (currently 0)
Launching 1M robotaxis in commercial service (about 30 pilot units exist in Austin)

Musk insists the package is essential to keep him focused on Tesla’s AI and robotics future. His words on the last earnings call summed it up:

“If we build this robot army, do I have at least a strong influence over that robot army?”

Investors seem convinced — but the market isn’t sure yet.

Samsung Deal Adds Fuel — Literally

Not all the news is grim.
South Korea’s Samsung SDI reportedly inked a $2.1 billion deal to supply Tesla with Energy Storage System (ESS) batteries over three years. The batteries will likely support Tesla’s expanding grid and Powerwall projects — key pieces of its energy business Musk says will “outgrow autos.”

Samsung hasn’t confirmed details, but the report suggests Tesla is still securing the supply lines it needs for scaling storage and AI-driven infrastructure.

Mag 7 Context: Heavyweights Still Rule

According to Zacks, the ‘Magnificent 7’ are on track to deliver +26.7% earnings growth YoY, even as Tesla’s own Q3 profits fell 39.5%.
Yet the group now accounts for 24.9% of all S&P 500 earnings — meaning Tesla, despite its slowdown, remains part of the engine that’s keeping the broader market alive.

So, Tesla isn’t the story of collapse — it’s the story of imbalance: extraordinary ambition clashing with uneven execution.

What the Chart Shows

Lesson of the Day: Psychological Levels

Psychological levels — those clean round numbers traders love — are where emotion meets liquidity. They attract orders, stops, and attention because human bias favors simplicity.

Large players often exploit these zones for liquidity, driving price slightly beyond them before reversing — the classic stop hunt. When a level reacts, traders remember, reinforcing its importance the next time price returns. Why they matter:

1️⃣ Human Bias

Markets gravitate toward whole numbers because they’re natural anchors for human decision-making. Traders tend to cluster entries and exits around these figures, creating predictable zones of activity.

2️⃣ Liquidity Targets

Institutional players understand where retail stops accumulate. They often drive price slightly beyond those thresholds to capture liquidity before the next directional move.

3️⃣ Price Memory

Once a level sparks a strong reaction, it rarely fades from traders’ radar. These areas often reappear as future support or resistance, shaping market structure over time.

4️⃣ Order Buildup Zones

Stops, take profits, and pending orders stack near these levels. They’re magnets for volatility when price gets close.

How to trade them:

Don’t react to the number itself — wait for confirmation (a retest, engulfing candle, or BOS).
Set alerts near, not on, the level to track reactions in real time.
On higher timeframes, these levels mark major turning zones; on lower ones, they often create noise.

Takeaway:
Psychological levels aren’t magic — they’re crowd behavior visualized. Recognize how traders and institutions respond around them, and you’ll read market intent with more precision.

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Key levels:

In short:

Europe’s rejection, Asia’s supply boost, and a U.S. shareholder vote all collide this week.
Technically, Tesla’s chart says pressure building; fundamentally, its ecosystem says don’t count it out.

Psychological levels are rarely about precision; they’re about perception.
The traders who wait for structure usually catch the real move.
How have you built discipline around these zones in your own trading?

Drop it in the comments here.

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