That’s Elon Musk’s new target for SpaceX.

For context, analysts expect SpaceX to generate roughly $44.6 billion this year.

So getting to Musk’s number would require revenue to grow roughly 22-fold in four years.

Ambitious? Very.

But then we looked at who else is approaching $1 trillion.

Amazon generated $716.9 billion last year. Walmart did $713.2 billion.

Meaning both are already more than 70% of the way there.

So we have SpaceX trying to pull off one of the fastest revenue expansions in corporate history...

...and Amazon potentially reaching the same milestone by slowing down.

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Put them next to each other and Musk’s target starts looking very different.

Amazon and Walmart have already generated more than 70% of $1 trillion in annual revenue. SpaceX is starting from less than 5% based on its 2026 estimate.

And Amazon’s math gets particularly interesting.

It only needs roughly 7% annual growth to cross $1 trillion by 2030. So far this year, it's growing at roughly 18%.

So the destination is the same.

The interesting part is how fast each company has to travel to get there.

Everyone said Tesla would go bankrupt. Luke Lango bought it anyway — and readers who followed saw 22X gains. Now Elon's next move is brewing, and it's bigger than Tesla and SpaceX combined.
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1\ Mid-June IPO - $135

2\ Post-IPO peak - $225 ↑ 67% from IPO

3\ August low - $104 ↓ 54% from the peak

4\ Now - $143 - Just 6% above its IPO price

The stock has essentially made a $121 round trip from peak to trough before recovering back above where it started.

For all the excitement around SpaceX’s $1 trillion ambitions, the market has spent its first few months trying to decide what the company is worth today.

Amazon generated $382.1 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026, growing 18% — more than twice the annual pace it needs to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

So Amazon doesn’t need to maintain 18% growth.

✱ It can slow down considerably and still get there.

And there’s still room to grow. E-commerce produces most of Amazon’s revenue, while AWS produces an outsized share of its profits. Jassy estimates roughly 85% of global IT spending still happens on-premises, leaving much of the potential cloud market outside AWS today.

Add Amazon’s push into its own AI chips and compute infrastructure, and the $1 trillion path starts looking surprisingly ordinary.

→ SpaceX needs acceleration. Amazon has room to hit the brakes.

Walmart’s path is less about speed.

→ Revenue grew 4.7% in FY2026 — solid, but below the roughly 7% annual pace needed to cross $1 trillion by FY2031.

But Walmart has something SpaceX can’t manufacture quickly: scale that already exists.

Roughly 90% of Americans live within 10 miles of a Walmart. It’s the second-largest U.S. e-commerce player behind Amazon, while its online and advertising businesses are adding new sources of growth on top of an enormous retail base.

→ And then there’s the dividend: Walmart has increased it for 50+ consecutive years.

This isn’t the moonshot route to $1 trillion.

It’s the keep-opening-the-doors-every-morning route.

Walmart reported Q2 this week, and the revenue number landed surprisingly close to the pace we’ve been talking about.

→ $187.94B — Q2 revenue
→ +6% — Year-over-year growth
→ $0.81 — Adjusted EPS

And management raised its full-year outlook.

Sounds pretty good.

The stock fell roughly 9% anyway.

The issue wasn’t really revenue. Part of Walmart’s margin improvement came from a one-time tariff refund, and management reinvested that benefit into more than 11,000 price rollbacks.

→ That helped customers, but also contributed to softer Q3 profit guidance.

For our $1 trillion race, though, the 6% revenue growth is the number to watch.

That’s still below the roughly 7% annual pace needed for the faster $1 trillion timeline, but close enough to keep Walmart moving toward the milestone.

So Walmart answered one question this week:

Can a $700+ billion retailer still grow around 6%? Yes.

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