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In every game, there are two ways to watch.

1\ You can watch the highlights.

or

2\ You can watch the scoreboard.

Highlights are exciting. Big plays. Big numbers. Big moments.

The scoreboard is quieter.

It only asks one question: Is the lead getting bigger?

Tonight, markets are watching Nvidia’s highlights.

But they’re also watching the scoreboard.

Here’s the story


The Scoreboard Problem

For most of the last year, markets have revolved around one axis:

AI.

70% of S&P 500 companies are talking about it on earnings calls.

Only 1% are quantifying how it actually improves profits.

That gap is important. Because when narratives get louder than numbers, capital starts looking for something sturdier.

Enter: HALO.

Not the AI basket. The opposite.

Hard Assets. Low Obsolescence.

Railroads.
Fertilizers.
Oil rigs.
Physical infrastructure.

Companies like:

• Union Pacific
• Nutrien
• Exxon Mobil

Assets AI may optimize — but never replace.

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The HALO Basket


1\ Union Pacific UNP ( ▼ 0.9% )  

Founded in 1862. Survived depressions, wars, recessions, pandemics.

Expected earnings growth:
~6.9% in 2026
~7.5% in 2027

Shares:
+15% YTD
Near 5-year highs

Valuation:
Forward P/E ~21
Dividend yield ~2.1%

This isn’t hypergrowth. It’s cash flow with durability.

AI may improve logistics efficiency. But It won’t replace 32,000 miles of rail.

2\ C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW ( ▼ 0.81% )  

Freight and trucking intermediary.

After a tough freight cycle, earnings are expected to jump:

~15.9% in 2026
~15.9% in 2027

Shares:
+76% over the past year
Near 5-year highs

Valuation:
Forward P/E ~30
Dividend yield ~1.4%

This is cyclical recovery + asset backbone.

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3\ Nutrien NTR ( ▼ 0.32% )  

One of the world’s largest fertilizer producers.

Earnings estimates have been revised higher.:
+5.3% expected growth in 2026
Recent upward estimate revisions

Shares:
+39% over the past year
3-year highs

Valuation:
Forward P/E ~15
Dividend yield ~3%

AI can model crop yields. But nitrogen, potash, and phosphate still come from mines.


4\ Lear Corporation LEA ( ▼ 0.38% )  

Automotive seating and electrical systems supplier.

After two tough years, earnings are expected to rebound:

Earnings:
+11.2% in 2026
+17.8% in 2027

Shares:
+38% over the past year
+13% YTD

Valuation:
Forward P/E ~9
Dividend yield ~2.3%

This is deep value territory.

Even in autonomous vehicles, someone still builds the interior.


5\ Exxon Mobil XOM ( ▼ 0.13% )

One of the largest integrated energy producers globally.

Shares are at all-time highs — even though earnings are projected to:
Declines projected through 2026
Rebound forecast in 2027 (~+21.8%)

Shares:
+21.7% YTD
At new all-time highs

Valuation:
→ Forward P/E ~22
→ PEG ~15.6
→ Dividend yield ~2.7%

Energy is cash return + asset control. And … AI infrastructure doesn’t run without power.


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To Sum Up


These aren’t hyper-growth names.

They’re cash-flow businesses with tangible assets and dividend support.

And many are breaking to multi-year or all-time highs.

That suggests something subtle:

While the market waits for AI to prove broad earnings leverage, capital is diversifying into durability.

Not abandoning innovation but balancing it.

Back to the Scoreboard

And then Nvidia reported.

Revenue: $68.1B vs $65.8B expected.
EPS: $1.62 vs $1.53 expected.
Data center: $62.3B vs $60.2B expected.

Q1 outlook: $76.4–79.5B, well above the $72.8B estimate.

That’s expansion.

- Compute revenue rose 58% year-over-year.
- Networking surged 263%.

Hyperscalers still represent just over 50% of data center revenue — but growth diversified beyond them.


Even with this beat, one fact remains:

70% of companies talk about AI. Only 1% quantify earnings impact.

Nvidia is monetizing the buildout. The broader market is still proving it.

That’s why durability trades exist.

Not as a rejection of AI.

But as a hedge against narrative concentration.

Lesson of the Day


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